Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen
The price test of 147.65 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which, in my view, limited the pair’s upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.
With no significant news ahead, the dollar has a good chance to continue rising against the yen, which has been losing popularity among traders lately. Even the interest rate differential and expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut rates do not provide the yen with the same level of support as before. However, this situation could be only a temporary pause before a new wave of volatility. Despite its current weakness, the yen remains a safe-haven asset, and in the event of increased global uncertainty or new economic shocks, demand for it could rise sharply.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 148.04 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 148.53 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 148.53, I will close buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35-point move in the opposite direction from the level). A solid rise in the pair today is possible as part of the ongoing bullish market. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY in the event of two consecutive tests of the 147.71 price, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair’s downward potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 148.04 and 148.53 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below 147.71 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.34, where I will close sell positions and also open buy positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level). Additional pressure on the pair today is unlikely to develop. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY in the event of two consecutive tests of the 148.04 price, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair’s upward potential and trigger a market reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 147.71 and 147.34 can be expected.
What’s on the chart:
- Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought;
- Thick green line – approximate price where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold;
- Thick red line – approximate price where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is, by nature, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
