The Japanese yen is holding near the upper boundary of last week’s range, close to the key 148.00 level. This is due to uncertainty regarding the timing of the Bank of Japan’s next interest rate hike. At the end of its July meeting, the central bank left the door open for further policy normalization; however, concerns over the potential negative impact of possible U.S. tariffs on the domestic economy have tempered expectations for an immediate hike.
Major Asian indices and U.S. stock futures rose, reducing the appeal of the yen as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, market tension persists ahead of the Tuesday deadline for the introduction of U.S. tariffs against China.
Meanwhile, nervousness ahead of bilateral talks between the U.S. and Russia is providing some support to the yen. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss the situation in Ukraine. This could further restrain market optimism and discourage aggressive positioning.
The U.S. dollar is facing growth challenges as expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts rise. These expectations were reinforced by comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who pointed to the possibility of three rate cuts this year, stressing the importance of labor market softening in decision-making. Traders are pricing in about a 90% probability of a September rate cut.
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled for Monday, leaving the market sensitive to FOMC member comments. Attention will be focused on Tuesday’s consumer inflation data. Additionally, Japan’s Q2 GDP and the U.S. Producer Price Index, both due Thursday, could influence the USD/JPY pair. Overall, the current fundamental backdrop remains mixed, so caution is advised when determining the market’s short-term direction.
From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are gradually gaining positive momentum. If the pair successfully breaks above resistance at the 148.00 level, this could serve as a key trigger for buyers, potentially pushing prices up to 148.50. The momentum could then extend toward the next key level of 149.00.
On the other hand, 147.30 is now providing immediate support ahead of the 147.00 level. A decisive break below this round level and the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA) would pave the way for steeper losses, driving USD/JPY below 146.00, where the critical 200-period simple moving average (SMA) lies on the 4-hour chart. Ultimately, prices could continue declining toward the psychological 145.00 level.
