On Tuesday, the Swiss franc stabilized against the US dollar as the dollar loses its initial gains, and traders exercise caution in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF rate was around 0.8185, having fallen from an intraday high of 0.8205—the highest level since June 2025.
The dollar is under pressure due to falling oil prices, which occurred after a temporary cessation of attacks between the US and Iran. The decline in energy prices also alleviates inflation concerns and reduces yields on US Treasury bonds.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump stated that now is “the right time for Iran to make a deal,” but warned that the US “will come back and finish what was started” if an agreement is not reached.
Economic data from the US provided minimal support for the exchange rate. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 90.8 in July, down from a revised upward value of 92.2 in June.
The US central bank is expected to keep the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. However, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the markets show a probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at around 30%.
US inflation significantly exceeds the Fed’s target of 2%. While the drop in oil prices alleviates some immediate inflation concerns, the risks of rising inflation remain. Even if the Fed decides to keep rates unchanged, policy is expected to remain tight, which could support the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc is among the worst-performing major currencies since the start of the war between the US and Iran. The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) zero interest rate policy makes the franc less attractive for carry trades, while the overall strength of the US dollar and the central bank’s readiness to counter excessive strengthening of the franc increase the pressure.
From a technical perspective, the pair finds support at the 9-day EMA, aiming for the July high around 0.8250. Oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls’ advantage, but the relative strength index is close to the overbought zone, indicating consolidation or correction. However, the path of least resistance remains upward.
The table below provides the percentage change of the US dollar against major currencies for Tuesday. The US dollar has been the strongest against the Australian dollar.
