Trade Review and British Pound Trading Tips
The test of the 1.3378 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair’s upward potential.
In addition to the Bank of England’s rate decision—which has already been widely discussed—the upcoming U.S. jobless claims report and a speech from FOMC member Raphael Bostic will serve as key events that could influence the next move in the GBP/USD pair following the Bank of England’s decision.
The jobless claims figure is a real-time barometer of labor market health. A decline in claims suggests an improving economy, which in turn supports dollar strength. Raphael Bostic’s comments, as a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, could also have a notable impact on market sentiment. His views on the current economic outlook, inflation risks, and future interest rates will be closely analyzed by investors. A dovish tone indicating the Fed’s readiness to continue rate cuts would pressure the dollar. It is also important to consider U.S. consumer credit data. An increase in consumer borrowing may reflect rising confidence and boost economic growth, supporting the dollar as well.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the 1.3380 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3423 (thicker green line). At 1.3423, I will exit long positions and open short positions, expecting a 30–35 point reversal. A pound rally today is only likely if the Fed adopts a dovish tone. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3360 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downward potential and trigger a reversal. A rise toward 1.3380 and 1.3423 may follow.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after a breakout below 1.3360 (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The key target will be 1.3315, where I will exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point reversal. Sellers are likely to be more active following a hawkish stance from Fed officials. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3380 level while MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit upward potential and lead to a reversal. A decline toward 1.3360 and 1.3315 may follow.
Chart Legend:
- Thin green line – entry price for long positions;
- Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or point for manual profit-taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – entry price for short positions;
- Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or point for manual profit-taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD indicator – use overbought and oversold zones to guide market entries.
Important: Beginner Forex traders must exercise caution when entering the market. It’s best to stay out before the release of major fundamental data to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly result in the loss of your entire deposit, especially if you don’t use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear and well-defined trading plan, such as the one shown above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
