Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test at 1.3447 occurred as the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound and resulting in a rise in the pair towards the target level of 1.3484. Last Friday clearly demonstrated how fragile the dollar’s strength was, as it lost the morning advantage by the end of the day. The upward correction in the American currency in the first half of the session was driven by weak data; however, the situation changed thereafter. Even with decent reports from the U.S., the pound managed to regain its positions against the dollar, indicating the preservation of a bullish market in the near term.
Today, the pound enters the day focused on the July Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector, which will be the main internal guide for the session. The index is a leading indicator, as it is among the first to signal changes in industry sentiment, and its dynamics directly influence expectations regarding the Bank of England’s policy and, in turn, the exchange rate of the British currency. Since these are revised data, the market will be watching for how the initial estimates are adjusted. An upward revision, which market participants expect, could trigger new long positions on GBP/USD. A revival in industry will reinforce arguments for the economy’s resilience and support the pound against the dollar.
For intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buying Scenarios
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3476 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3514 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3514, I plan to exit the longs and open short positions back in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Growth for the pound today can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3451 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair’s downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3476 and 1.3514.
Selling Scenarios
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3451 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3416, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Bad news will bring pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3476 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair’s upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3451 and 1.3416.
What the Chart Shows:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
- Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
- Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
