After the labor market and unemployment reports published last Friday, it was clear that only the most complacent didn’t conclude that the Federal Reserve will begin easing monetary policy in the very near future. For a long time, I wondered what the Fed would choose: inflation or the labor market? It seems the answer has now been given—the labor market.
The data shown by the U.S. labor market in the first months following Trump’s tariffs can only be described as “discouraging.” Abstractly speaking, jobs are practically not being created in the U.S., and we’re not just talking about statistics. Behind every job is an American who either loses their job or can’t find one. Inflation affects every American, especially low-income groups—but it only reduces the purchasing power of money. Unemployment or a weak labor market threatens job loss for tens or even hundreds of thousands of Americans.
If what’s happening now in the U.S. is all part of Trump’s design, then he can truly be called a genius. If the Fed doesn’t want to lower rates voluntarily, hiding behind inflation metrics and its mandate to ensure price stability, then conditions must be created where the central bank has no other choice. As I’ve said before, Trump doesn’t care about how the poor live or will live. He only cares about money—and thus, about the rich. He’s building a country for the wealthy, for millionaires—or better yet, billionaires-who contribute to the economy, develop it, pay taxes, and support the Republican Party.
Inflation is not a major problem for the wealthy, given their substantial wealth. The tariffs that Trump continues to raise—even after the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports—hit the American economy and foreign investment. But if international investors no longer want to go to the U.S., they must be forced to. That’s why “onerous” deals are signed with the EU, Japan, and other countries, which will be left with no choice but to direct investments into America. And let the Fed worry about the labor market, which primarily concerns ordinary Americans. Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller are already prepared to vote for a rate cut, while Mary Daly and Neel Kashkari are ready to support such a decision in September. Consequently, demand for the U.S. dollar may continue to decline through the end of the year. And I believe 2026 won’t be any better for the American currency.
Wave pattern for EUR/USD:
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues forming a bullish trend segment. The wave pattern still entirely depends on the news background related to Trump’s decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets for this trend segment could reach up to the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buying with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and beyond. Presumably, wave 4 has been completed. Hence, now is a good time for buying.
Wave pattern for GBP/USD:
The wave pattern of GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish impulse trend segment. Under Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could significantly impact the wave picture, but at present, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the bullish trend segment are now located around 1.4017. I currently assume that the formation of corrective wave 4 has been completed. Therefore, I expect the upward wave set to resume and am considering buying with a target of 1.4017.
Core principles of my analysis:
- Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
- If you’re not confident in the market situation, it’s better to stay out.
- There is never 100% certainty in price direction. Always remember to use Stop Loss protection orders.
- Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
