Donald Trump continues his frantic efforts to coerce countries and continents into submission to the U.S. as a global hegemon. The tariff theme remains dominant and fuels increased market volatility, making it impossible to ignore.
One tariff wave after another has already pushed markets into a chaotic state, as it remains unclear how all of this will ultimately unfold. Yet even under such uncertain conditions, investors strive to find promising trade opportunities. For example, Trump’s decision to impose 100% tariffs on imported semiconductors from foreign companies—while exempting domestic U.S. producers—triggered a strong surge in demand for tech sector stocks yesterday. As a result, the NASDAQ 100 index nearly returned to its recent all-time high by the end of Thursday’s trading session.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar—which in theory should be under pressure from tariff-related uncertainty, as was the case until recently, as well as from rising expectations of an earlier Federal Reserve rate cut—is showing remarkable resilience. A similar pattern is observed in the commodity markets. For example, crude oil prices remain within a relatively narrow range. The same applies to the crypto market.
All of this is a direct consequence of Trump’s aggressive and voluntarist policy approach. It’s unclear when this will come to an end. It is quite likely that even after trade deals are finalized under new terms, U.S. trade partners will seek to challenge the current onerous conditions, which will in turn be fully reflected in market dynamics.
So which assets may be of interest in this environment?
I believe that U.S. company stocks appear to be the most attractive. Despite all the external chaos driven by Trump’s actions, there is a clear and observable trend toward supporting domestic producers through protective tariffs on foreign competitors and through attempts to lower interest rates to near-zero levels. Yes, it is all happening in a systemic and voluntarist fashion, but in this scenario, the president sees this as the only right course of action. That means stocks of companies focused on domestic consumers and producing goods and services within the U.S. are likely to rise.
As for the cryptocurrency market, in the near future, under the policies of the 47th U.S. president, continued confident growth is unlikely. I have previously noted that in an environment of anticipated rate cuts, demand for both bonds and other non-interest-bearing assets—including cryptocurrencies, gold, and forex instruments—is likely to decrease. And here, U.S. equities will likely take the lead.
Overall, assessing the market situation, I believe the sideways trend in commodities, gold, and cryptocurrencies—including the dollar—will likely persist. U.S. stock indexes and American corporate stocks will continue to receive support.
Forecast of the Day:
#SPX
The CFD contract for the S&P 500 futures is consolidating above the level of 6336.85. A potential dip below this level is a buying opportunity, with a likely rebound to 6397.00. A possible entry level for buying could be around 6325.43.
#NDX
The CFD contract for the NASDAQ 100 futures is also consolidating above the level of 23393.20. A possible decline below this level should also be considered a buy signal, with a probable rise to 23559.50. A suitable entry point for buying could be 23316.70.
