Today, Brent is trading around $88 per barrel, declining at the end of a volatile week but still on track for its largest monthly gain since March amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. The more active October contract fell by 1.8% yesterday to $85.36, while WTI for September delivery dropped 1.9% to $82.02. Nonetheless, July has seen the benchmark grade gain about 20%.
In light of the ongoing exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz appears to have picked up in recent days, providing a rare positive signal amid the overall escalation. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia discussed with representatives from 43 countries the formation of an alliance to protect shipping in the Red Sea and its surroundings, hoping to counter the blockade imposed by Iranian-backed Houthi forces against the kingdom last week.
Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi stated in a televised address on Thursday that there are signs Saudi Arabia is moving towards a comprehensive escalation and warned that this would be met with a more intense campaign. In addition to strikes on tankers, the group recently claimed responsibility for attacks on oil facilities.
Regarding the month’s outcomes, energy markets soared in July at double-digit rates, affecting not just oil but also derivative products like diesel. During this month, the fragile pause in hostilities between Washington and Tehran collapsed, with Yemeni Houthis entering the conflict, and Saudi forces joining the US in strikes against Iran-related groups in Iraq.
Experts note that, apart from the Middle East, there are concerns about supply disruptions in the Black Sea. Loading at the terminal, crucial for Kazakhstan’s oil exports, was halted again this week after new attacks on tankers. In just this month, nine vessels have been attacked while en route to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium facility.
The International Monetary Fund continues to see the risk that a Middle Eastern oil shock could trigger a global economic recession. However, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that the impact would be moderate if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen soon.
As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $83.56. This will allow them to target $86.67, above which it will be quite challenging to break. The furthest target will be the area around $89.54. In the event of a price drop, bears will attempt to take control below $80.50. If they succeed, breaking through this range would deal a severe blow to bullish positions and could push oil down to a low of $78.70 with the potential to reach $76.30.
