Trade Analysis for Wednesday:
1H Chart of GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair also showed significant growth on Wednesday, driven by the market’s unmet expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. As we warned, the market will require promises from the Fed, specifically from Kevin Warsh, to raise the key rate by the end of the year. In reality, the Fed Chair again indicated that inflation in the US remains high, but provided no information on how and when the central bank will start addressing this elevated inflation. On the contrary, Warsh stated that the June consumer price report gave the Fed time to think. This means the Fed is not looking to rush into policy tightening. Unsurprisingly, the market was disappointed by this rhetoric, even as it has essentially become a hostage to its own overly hawkish expectations. The British pound may still begin forming a new upward trend, as the descending trendline has been broken and surpassed. Today marks the Bank of England meeting, which could bring the pound back down to earth.
5M Chart of GBP/USD
On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Wednesday. Initially, the pair breached the 1.3319-1.3331 area and hit the 1.3380-1.3386 area. Subsequently, it bounced off the 1.3380-1.3386 area. Both signals formed quite late in the day and after the publication of the Fed meeting results and Warsh’s speech. Executing these trades was relatively challenging.
How to Trade on Thursday:
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair may begin a new upward trend. After three weeks of growth, a correction was needed, but it may be coming to an end as the trendline has been broken. Technically, any rise in the British currency in the coming days and weeks will be completely justified.
On Thursday, novice traders may remain in short positions as the price bounced from the 1.3380-1.3386 area yesterday, targeting 1.3319-1.3331. Long positions can be considered on a bounce from the area of 1.3319-1.3331 with a target of 1.3380-1.3386.
On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to watch include 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold a meeting, and Governor Andrew Bailey will give a speech. Both events are considered important and may present challenges for the British currency. In the US, a significant PCE index report will be released, along with the second-quarter GDP report. This data may also influence market sentiment.
Basic Rules of the Trading System:
- The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
- On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend line or channel confirms a trend.
- If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
- After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.
What’s on the Charts:
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.
Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
