Bitcoin has managed to recover to $8,000 and continues to move towards the only bearish FVG (fair value gap) on the daily chart, as we had anticipated. On the daily timeframe, this area is the only POI (point of interest) for new short positions. It should be noted that the correction can end at any moment, not necessarily within any specific pattern. Bitcoin continues to trade near its annual lows, and most independent and unbiased experts predict a new decline. We fully agree with these forecasts and believe that the downward trend is not over. There are no signs of a bullish trend reversal: no bullish patterns or breakdown of the bearish structure. The fundamental backdrop also remains negative: the Federal Reserve has no plans to lower the key rate in 2026, capital continues to flow into the AI sector, spot demand for Bitcoin remains weak, the geopolitical situation is unstable, and miners are adapting their equipment to AI requirements. We see no reasons for a significant rise in “digital gold.”
Tomorrow evening, the Fed meeting will take place, during which the key rate is expected to remain unchanged with a probability of 99%. We also do not believe that the new Fed Chair Kevin Waller will hint at any potential regulatory decisions at the September meeting. It is worth recalling that there are heated debates about when the Fed will start raising the key rate in response to inflation growth due to the war in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Our opinion remains unchanged: Waller will keep silent, making no announcements simply because he wants to significantly reduce the Fed’s communication volume with the markets and is personally uninterested in tightening monetary policy. Therefore, no hawkish hints will be made. The market will have to guess what decision the Fed will make in a month and a half. What conclusions traders draw after the central bank’s meeting and Waller’s speech is a mystery shrouded in darkness. In our view, monetary policy will depend on geopolitics and inflation levels, not on Waller’s speech.
General Picture of BTC/USD on 1D
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as downward, and the CHOCH (Change of Character) line is now at $82,800, as a new LL (Lower Low) has been formed. Only above this level can it be considered that the downward trend has ended. Since there are still no signals for an upward trend reversal, we believe that the decline will continue. On the daily timeframe, a bearish FVG has been formed in the area of $68,000 – $70,700, which serves as the only POI for sales.
General Picture of BTC/USD on 4H
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form an upward corrective trend. After reclaiming liquidity for buying on July 1, a rally began, as we previously warned. Recently, only minor, local FVGs have been formed, whose reactions tend to be weak. The price did not react to the last bullish FVG but did respond to the last bearish FVG. Note the liquidity pool below the trendline, into which the price is likely to drop with a 90% probability when the current correction ends. The price is approaching both the trendline and the trend reversal line.
Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:
Bitcoin continues to form a genuine downward trend. We expect further declines targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from a three-year upward trend), although this level has essentially already been tested. However, we do not believe the downward trend will end here. The last bearish FVG was formed in the area of $68,000 – $70,700 on the daily timeframe, so this zone serves as a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is continuing its second round of correction, but selling trades remain more attractive. Short-term long positions are certainly allowed; however, it should be understood that the trend remains downward, so bearish patterns are still more promising.
Explanations for Illustrations:
CHOCH – Change of Character in trend structure.
Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders, which market makers use to build their positions.
FVG – Fair Value Gap. The price passes through these areas very quickly, indicating a complete lack of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to these areas in continuation of the main trend.
IFVG – Inverse Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it and breaks impulsively, then tests it from the other side.
OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to capture liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.
